WASHINGTON – Global warming could be a boon to Russia, a European country could be overrun by organized crimeand the U.S. and its dollar could further decline in importance duringthe next two decades, says a U.S. intelligence report with predictionsfor the world in 2025.
The report, Global Trends 2025, is published every four years by the National Intelligence Council to give U.S. leaders insight into looming problems and opportunities.
The report says the warming earth will extend Russia and Canada'sgrowing season and ease their access to northern oil fields,strengthening their economies. But Russia's potential emergence as aworld power may be clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector,persistent crime and government corruption, the report says.
Analystsalso warn that the same kind of organized crime plaguing Russia couldeventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central Europeancountry. The report is silent on which one.
It also says countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves unstable and ungoverned, as state regimes collapse or wither away under security problems and water and food shortages brought about by climate change and a population increase of 1.4 billion.
Thepotential for conflict will be greater in 2025 than it is now, as theworld's population competes for declining and shifting food, water andenergy resources.
Despite a moreprecarious world situation, the report also says al-Qaida's terroristfranchise could decay "sooner than people think." It cites its growingunpopularity in the Muslim world, where it kills most of its victims.
"Theprospect that al-Qaida will be among the small number of groups able totranscend the generational timeline is not high, given its harshideology, unachievable strategic objectives and inability to become amass movement," the report states.
The report forecasts a geopolitical rise in non-Arab Muslim states outside of the Middle East, including Turkey and Indonesia, and says Iran could also be a central player in a new world order if it sheds its theocracy.
Thereport, a year in the making, also suggests the world may complete itsmove away from its dependence on oil, and that the U.S. dollar, whileremaining important, will decline to "first among equals" among othernational currencies.
U.S. global poweralso will likely decline, as Americans' concerns about puttingresources into solving domestic problems may cause the United States topull resources from foreign and global problems.
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On the Net:
Global Trends 2025:
http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081121/ap_on_go_ot/intel_trends