So 2007 was the smartest, wat does this mean to course cut offs? (1 Viewer)

[jannny]

Discuss.

 

[A High Way Man]

Hmmm.. think about how UAIs are determined. Lets say you have a course with 250 CSP places. What happens is that people are put into this course in order of highest UAI. The UAI of the 250th person will be the UAI cutoff for the course.

I don't think there will be any large difference in the cutoffs

...or, people who would've in done average have done better compared to last year, and they would change their preferences to higher demand courses, leading to higher cutoffs for higher demand courses.

 

[chocolatecookie]

when exactly are the cut-offs for 2008 released???

 

[~untitled~]

Im screwed if uais go up, damn you smart people.

 

[ahen]

why is she pretty AND smart? far out that is soooo unfair , if you top any subject it should be made a rule that you must therefore be butt ugly , gee you can't have EVERYTHING going for you
- i joke i joke

on topic, i think the UAIs for health related courses will go up cos UMAT was allegedly so hard this year so all the wannabe doctors will run off and do pharmacy and psychology and med science and stuff.
They had just better stay away from the communications courses *stares at those UMAT failers evilly*

 

[chocolatecookie]

^^ haha "wannabe doctors"

 

[amulet888]

if you don't make it to medicine the first time, there's a very remote chance you'll make it the second time. Stop wasting your life and pursue a different career, there is a whole world out there

 

[MortImmortelle]

on topic, i think the UAIs for health related courses will go up cos UMAT was allegedly so hard this year so all the wannabe doctors will run off and do pharmacy and psychology and med science and stuff.
They had just better stay away from the communications courses *stares at those UMAT failers evilly*

ah what crud :jaw: Let's hope not...

 

[euro-dragon]

Well i heard that the Cut-offs are released after we get offers from the unis (correct me if i'm wrong) - and the uni offers come in mid-January methinks (e.g. like 21th-24th January for USYD - for my course of B. Sci. at least) :uhhuh:

Past Cut-offs for my course:
2007: 83
2006: 81
2005: 85 }Largest increase of UAI cut-off (by 5points) between 2003-2004
2004: 80 }

I sure hope the 2008 cut-off for my course won't be higher than 85

nah the main round offers come january 17th

 

[BHHS]

From what I can gather our grade wasn't smarter, it was just that the scaling for the HSC marks was such that there were more band 6's than previous years, and this was because people were complaining that there weren't enough band 6's. The end result is that there are less 88's/89's and more 90's/91's, and while it appears our year was more successful it is really just an artificial inflation of the marks to make it look this way. Given that the UAI is a rank based off the raw exam and assessment marks (the UAC scales them again) then it will not have been affected by the HSC marks which were scaled by the Board of Studies (ie moderated marks, not raw marks). The only thing that could have changed is if you tried to calculated your UAI off the HSC marks, then (in a perfect world where each subject saw the same increase in band 6's) if you got 90 in every subject in the 2007 HSC your UAI would be equivilent to the UAI you would receive if you got 89 in every subject in the 2006 HSC.

Therefore, if your ability remains the same in each subject you should get the same UAI year to year, even if your HSC marks appear to change due to the Board's scaling process. This is not entirely true, as the number of candidates in each subject changes each year, and the UAI is a rank which takes into account student and subject rank, therefore it will flucuate, but if you take the subjects which have consistant scaling and numbers of candidates then your UAI will remain roughly the same.

That said, the entry cutoff for university is not based on UAI, but on the number of places together, the cutoff is equal to the UAI of the last student to get in (eg if a course had 100 places the UAI cutoff would be equivilent to the UAI of the 100th student, meaning that had a student had a higher UAI to the cutoff and had applied to the course they would have gotten in, with some exceptions). For many courses the UAI remains relatively the same, that means that the same number of candidates apply for it and the UAI's of the lowest ranked candidates remains roughly consistent over time. There are only three ways for the UAI cutoff of a course to change:

*If the course suddenly becomes more or less popular, in which case the UAI will increase or decrease to align itself with the lowest ranked student who was successful in gaining admission
*If the number of places in a course changes, in which case the UAI will increase/decrease as more/less people gain admission (still aligning itself with the lowest ranked student)
*If the number of students sitting the HSC drastically changes, as the UAI is a rank this means more people would sit on each UAI point (eg 40 people get 80.05 instead of 25), this means that if a course has 100 places these will be filled by the top 100 students who apply, as there are more students with a higher UAI (in the example of more students sitting the HSC) then the cutoff will appear to rise (assuming that the proportion and rank of students applying for that course out of the entire student body remains the same)

I'm really just rambling now, the end result is that the scaled HSC marks (which are what give us the band 6's and hence make us appear smarter) will have no impact on the UAI cutoff for courses.

 

[Captain Gh3y]

From what I can gather our grade wasn't smarter, it was just that the scaling for the HSC marks was such that there were more band 6's than previous years, and this was because people were complaining that there weren't enough band 6's. The end result is that there are less 88's/89's and more 90's/91's, and while it appears our year was more successful it is really just an artificial inflation of the marks to make it look this way. Given that the UAI is a rank based off the raw exam and assessment marks (the UAC scales them again) then it will not have been affected by the HSC marks which were scaled by the Board of Studies (ie moderated marks, not raw marks). The only thing that could have changed is if you tried to calculated your UAI off the HSC marks, then (in a perfect world where each subject saw the same increase in band 6's) if you got 90 in every subject in the 2007 HSC your UAI would be equivilent to the UAI you would receive if you got 89 in every subject in the 2006 HSC.

Therefore, if your ability remains the same in each subject you should get the same UAI year to year, even if your HSC marks appear to change due to the Board's scaling process. This is not entirely true, as the number of candidates in each subject changes each year, and the UAI is a rank which takes into account student and subject rank, therefore it will flucuate, but if you take the subjects which have consistant scaling and numbers of candidates then your UAI will remain roughly the same.

That said, the entry cutoff for university is not based on UAI, but on the number of places together, the cutoff is equal to the UAI of the last student to get in (eg if a course had 100 places the UAI cutoff would be equivilent to the UAI of the 100th student, meaning that had a student had a higher UAI to the cutoff and had applied to the course they would have gotten in, with some exceptions). For many courses the UAI remains relatively the same, that means that the same number of candidates apply for it and the UAI's of the lowest ranked candidates remains roughly consistent over time. There are only three ways for the UAI cutoff of a course to change:

*If the course suddenly becomes more or less popular, in which case the UAI will increase or decrease to align itself with the lowest ranked student who was successful in gaining admission
*If the number of places in a course changes, in which case the UAI will increase/decrease as more/less people gain admission (still aligning itself with the lowest ranked student)
*If the number of students sitting the HSC drastically changes, as the UAI is a rank this means more people would sit on each UAI point (eg 40 people get 80.05 instead of 25), this means that if a course has 100 places these will be filled by the top 100 students who apply, as there are more students with a higher UAI (in the example of more students sitting the HSC) then the cutoff will appear to rise (assuming that the proportion and rank of students applying for that course out of the entire student body remains the same)

I'm really just rambling now, the end result is that the scaled HSC marks (which are what give us the band 6's and hence make us appear smarter) will have no impact on the UAI cutoff for courses.

summary:

they're going up

 

[jannny]

summary:

they're going up

 

[BHHS]

summary:

they're going up

Some are going up, some are staying the same, and others are going down. Degrees which lead to jobs in more demand, engineering in particular, are going to attract more applicants because they have higher starting salaries and the like, and hence the UAI's for these courses are going to go up. Other courses which have less demand, such as (correct me if I'm wrong) nursing, teaching and the like are going to go down.

The general trend is more than likely that UAI's will increase on average, but not because we're a smarter grade or anything but instead because more people are being coerced into attending university because of the employability status it brings. That said, you need to look at the trends relating to individual courses, as generalisations will really bring you no insight.

 

[Captain Gh3y]

in other words 2007 being the smartest year has no effect because there's roughly the same number of people with each possible UAI as every other year

 

[Fish Sauce]

in other words 2007 being the smartest year has no effect because there's roughly the same number of people with each possible UAI as every other year

Exactly, wtf

 

[Captain Gh3y]

Not really because the number of places will probably increase too

at the expense of the quality of our universities, but who cares about that when there's money to be made

 

[IceOnFire]

Well there's still the HSC plus program for those going to UNSW.

Yeah UNSW ftw..!! Haha I am so excited.

 

[partelephant]

Summary of this whole thread: Us being "smarter" will pretty much do nothing to course cut offs since UAI is a RANK not a MARK.

Also those extra 1500 uni applicants *likely* aren't those with the higher UAIs but those with those on the lower end of the spectrum and just giving it a shot. (Sorry to generalise)

 

[jayadore]

Perhaps what everyone should have done from the very beginning then, was work harder and hopefully surpassed the previous years cut offs by quite a large number? Or alternatively, if you didn't get into the course you want, transfer.

This year shouldn't be any different than any other year, some people will get into their courses and others won't. Just wait and pray to any god that's listening that you do make it.

/condescending tone.

 

[Jakespikey]

All it means is for every UAI point IE 70-71 there is 15 more people then the previous year in that range.

So if you got a UAI of 70, there is 450 more people infront of you then what the same person who got 70 the previous year. Obviously those same 450 who got better airn't all going to apply for the course as you at the same university.

There is like 13 or so unis (according to the amount of forums dedicated here for universities). If you pretend each uni has an equal chance of getting the same number of those 450 students. Then each uni will increase by 35 extra students spread across all their courses. Uni's offer heaps and heaps of courses so unless your course is very popular in an average uni you may only get a few people more applying for that course that got a higher uai then you then compared to how many people were above someone with the same uai as u in the previous year.

Each year I imagine they can add more spots then the previous year, as well as new courses which will draw students away from less popular courses or perhaps even out the more popular courses. For this reason the only real thing is going to change the UAI cut offs is wether or not your course is popular or not compared to the amount of positions on offer for that course. Which is the same thing that make courses go up and down every year.