Elections are supposed to be every 3 years aren't they?
Could be a double dissolution. A house only election can also be held at any time. It's also still possible that the latest date could be in 2017 as the requirement is that the
writs be issued 3 years after the
first sitting of the House (as opposed to the election being 3 years after the last election).
I think there's a definite chance of a Labor win, especially with the disdain for the Liberals already at a high only a week after they've come into power.
Evidence for this?
New governments always have a honeymoon period and there's no indication that it'll be any different this time. Disdain may be high within left wing circles perhaps, but in the wider electorate the new government will be enjoying strong support.
Plus, the Liberals did not get the 'landslide' of votes they were hoping for - leaving Labor with a chance to be able to swing back next election if people get their heads together and sort out their voting preferences.
It was by all accounts a landslide, in 2PP terms, on primaries, on seat numbers. It's well above Rudd's 2007 win and on par with Howard in 1996. The ALP primary is only 33% which is a shocker of a number. It is indeed the lowest in 100 years.
Based off of first preferences alone, the Liberals only beat Labor because of the National's preferences.
Not sure what you mean here.
The liberals and nationals do not usually run in the same seats (3 cornered contests). Nationals preferences didnt flow to Liberal candidates because there were no national candidates running in Liberal seats.
In terms of seat numbers, the Liberals actually have a majority in their own right and could govern without the Nationals. The LNP is the Liberal Party's QLD division (Nats are only affiliated to it) and most of its members join the Liberal party room in Canberra.
And many people apparently voted in other parties which gave the Liberals their preferences, but a lot of people aren't aware of that.
In the House, voters have full control of their preferences. Parties don't give other parties their preferences, voters do. Voters can number their preferences how they want.