Factors Affecting Inflation and Economic Growth (1 Viewer)

eagleboy79

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Can anyone please explain how commodity prices and exchange rates influence economic growth? And how does employment and one other factor influence inflation?
 

BoredofBoredofS

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As a general rule, the amount of goods being exported to other countries determines the levels of economic growth - lower commodity prices increases the demand for exports, which increases exports and thus raises economic growth. Similarly, if a country experiences a depreciation in their currency the cost of goods will decrease relative to other countries, increasing competitiveness and raising export volumes (note that in the VERY short-term exports/growth will decrease as there is a time-lag with export volumes, and the depreciation will reduce the total value of exports). You may also want to discuss the further effects of this depreciation - as other countries demand more of your currency (thereby increasing export volumes), the demand for your currency will increase and cause an appreciation - this cycle will theoretically continue indefinitely as much of economics is centred around equalising (demand/supply curves, etc.). Other things you can discuss regarding exchange rates are the potential increases in financial inflow due to being a cheaper source of investment as well as the high interest rates associated with a low dollar and the real increase in foreign debt (~40% of AU debt), the former causing higher potential long-term growth and the latter potentially causing a debt-accumulation cycle and acting as a constraint on growth.

For inflation, employment does not effect it per se - maybe you mean labour/workers? If they hold inflationary expectations, then they will demand higher wages to compensate for the decrease in real wages - this causes a self-fulfilling phrophecy as the increase in labour costs are passed on to firm production, thus causing cost-push inflation and leading to a wage-price spiral if further expectations occur. Another factor (linked with inflationary expectations) is consumers that expect the price to go up - this mindset will cause an increase in consumption, as the goods/services are perceived to be cheaper in the present. This causes demand-pull inflation and, like with the workers, can repeat itself until inflation is uncontrollable. If these two 'factors' are too linked i.e. inflationary expectations, you could also discuss government policy - especially monetary policy, which sets the cash rate that essentially dictates interest rates (overnight market rate acts as an anchor for RoI). Fiscal policy also effects inflation, but only to a certain extent.

^^ ACTUALLY i forgot the link between employment and inflation - search up the Short Run and Long Run Phillips Curve - the SRPC states that low unemployment leads to high inflation, and vice versa. However the LRPC counteracts this, stating that inflationary expectations will cancel this.
 
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