can some1 help refresh my memory? and take me back to march 05? (1 Viewer)

unfold

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i cant remember well.

but i know that during March RBA tightened monetary policy raising interest rate from 5.25% to 5.5%.. for what reason..inflation too high?? BUT i also know that during that time, economic growth slumped to 1.9% !!
it'd be funny if RBA raised interest rate at a time when growth was low.. i'm sure it must be some other reason?

so what exactly happened??

thanks in advance!
 

Cityboy

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wanted to cool off inflationary pressures caused by the astronomical rises in housing prices in the mainland capitals.
 

biscuit

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Strength of AUD, Housing sector, employment growth --> wage pressures, growth of global economy, crude oil prices all had an impact on the increase
 

Haku

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housing boom was last yr, this yr the housing prices have being falling.
 

unfold

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what about the economic growth? @ 1.9% .. is that what happened after the raising of the interest rate?
 

pete_mate

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you can find it here

http://www.rba.gov.au/MediaReleases/2005/mr_05_04.html

...decision to do so in March took into account the following main considerations:

The Australian economy is now in the fourteenth year of an expansion which has made substantial inroads into the economy's surplus productive capacity. Over recent months, it has become increasingly clear that remaining spare capacity in the labour and goods markets is becoming rather limited.
This is now starting to result in stronger inflationary pressures. Price increases at the producer level picked up appreciably at all stages of production during the second half of 2004. Consumer price inflation, although currently consistent with the target, was higher than had been expected, and is forecast to increase to around 3 per cent by the end of next year. Continued pressure on raw materials prices, constraints on capacity and reports of higher employment costs – notwithstanding the steadiness to date of aggregate wage measures – constitute a risk that this forecast will prove to be too low.

Although Australia's GDP slowed during 2004, this does not appear to have reflected any deficiency in domestic or global demand. Domestic spending has been growing strongly for some time and the global economy last year grew at its fastest pace in more than a decade.

Conditions prevailing in Australia and abroad are likely to continue to encourage spending growth in the period ahead. The world economy is growing at a faster-than-average pace and world commodity prices are rising. In Australia, there are high levels of confidence in both the business and household sectors, credit growth is providing ample support for spending, employment is growing strongly and national income and spending will continue to be boosted this year by the rising terms of trade.
 

pete_mate

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standup said:
hmm i always thought it was to slow import spending in an attempt to reduce the cad
hah, no no. the RBA has stated monetyary policy should solely be used to deal with internal stability not external stability

this is very important. Because monetary policy has contradictory outcomes, contractionary fiscal policy = higher interest rates = higher $A = decreased IC = higher CAD

therefore, in march the RBA would actually be making the CAD worse! (although the reduction in domestic demand would reduce import spending)

tho, monteray policy as you can see is difficult to use to manage external stability, as evidenced in the earl 1990's (recession we had to have, blah blah)
 

standup

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yes ur right.. increased interest rate would encourage foreign investment, thus appreciating the $AUS, thus making ur debt less (increased purchasing power)
 

barnsey88

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according to some leading edge material that i have, the increase in interest rates in March was the first change in 15 months and it was seen as neutral, neither stimulating or dampening monetary policy.

The impact of this increase was unexpectedly considerable, due to the indebtness of decreasing disposable incomes of households.
 

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