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What do you guys think is the lowest raw mark or hsc mark required for a state rank?

I'll be sitting both papers :)

99.95 mate

Too nice I reckon, maybe 80

Currently I'd say you're standing around mid 98 to low 99 ATAR.

Look mate I'm gonna be brutally honest here. If you want 99.95, you're either gonna have to ace externals (like literally 96+ for everything), or you're gonna have to hope that your cohort, especially for english, is strong.