"All cryptocurrencies will go to zero." Big no. As long as theres demand for it, Cryptocurrencies will never go to zero - And as long as it has a use case, there will always be demand for it - Look at the currency crises experienced by emerging markets worldwide who’ve turned to crypto as a form of payment to hedge the rapid rates of hyperinflation following poor monetary management. Cryptos are so much more than just a payment system. Yes, it was originally built as a peer-to-peer payments system, but its evolved into so much more than that. Take a look at projects such as ripple (as much as I'm fundamentally against it), it still helps banks reduce costs by providing technology to facilitate international cross border transactions in a more efficient manner. Other tokens such as Walton are already disrupting businesses in the supply chain industry by tracking products on the blockchain using RFID technology (A massive use case for countries dominated with fraud and fake products, especially in one of the largest emerging markets in China). If you are to think that cryptos are solely built for a mass payment system, you are incredibly wrong on that ). And like I said before, as long as there is a use case, there will be demand, and as long as theres demand, the price will never go to zero.All cryptocurrencies will go to zero.
The SEC has already rejected three separate bitcoin ETF applications due to concern about fraud and manipulation. They will never approve an ETF. The only regulation will be to make cryptocurrency harder to use. It's not used for anything significant but speculation. The technology doesn't work for a mass payment system, it will never be viable.
'The technology doesn't work for a mass payment system,' Agreed to an extent. Basic fundamental economics show that a deflationary currency will never act as a mass payment system because consumers will always delay their decisions and there will be no spending within an economy to generate demand side growth. In extension, a volatile currency will also never be used because consumers are unsure of its value and their purchasing power the next day. Agreed on this point. HOWEVER, I do think that in the long-term with greater regulation and legitamization that cryptos as a whole will become less volatile and more viable as a mass payment system - A great example of this is gold, whilst not necessarily a payments system, it was initially extremely volatile, but has stabilised over time into a robust store of value for investors.
That being said, Bitcoin will never be used as a mass payment system because its too inefficient and expensive. However, that doesn't mean it can't act as an investment vehicle & store of value for investors (In the long term once its stabilised) - Thats the direction I see bitcoin heading towards. Also, there is already development in other blockchain based technology that can act as viable facilitators for mass payment systems. Take a look at the IOTA Tangle; Every transaction thats made on the tangle verifies two transactions behind it, meaning that it is infinitely scalable, even on a microeconomic scale between a machine-to-machine economy as well as a peer-peer economy - An economy that runs on machine-to-machine microtransactions isn't even that far of a fetched idea, especially considering the growing development of automated technology & artificial intelligence. Eg. Automated cars will pay other cars on the road to overtake them if they want to reach a destination faster - An extension of paying more gas for a quicker transaction on the blockchain. Perhaps a better example is NANO and their lattice network, also an infinitely scalable payments system.
As for the SEC decision for an ETF, I honestly think its a matter of time. They’re going to continue to suspend and reject applications until rising levels of consumer demand outstrip the risks of implementing an ETF. When will this happen? I personally believe on either the next bull run, or the one after, where commercial investors will be looking to FOMO back into crypto and demand an easier investment option besides going onto online exchanges itself and verifying all their information, going through KYC etc etc. (Back to the Gold example, it took over 15years for the first Gold ETF to be introduced after hundreds of applications)